Election Years Often Cause a Brief Slowdown
In most years, home sales tend to slow down a bit in the fall due to seasonal trends. However, BTIG data shows that in election years, there’s often a somewhat more noticeable dip in home sales during the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below).
The reason? Uncertainty. Many people tend to delay big decisions or purchases as they wait to see the outcome of the election. This pattern frequently appears, especially among buyers and sellers in the housing market.
This year follows the same trend. A recent survey by Redfin revealed that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers are choosing to wait until after the election to purchase, with nearly a quarter of them likely pausing due to similar feelings of uncertainty.
Home Sales Rebound Following the Election
The positive news is that these delayed sales aren’t gone for good—they’re simply postponed. Historically, sales often bounce back once the election concludes. In fact, home sales have risen 82% of the time in the year following an election (see chart below):
This happens because, once the election concludes, buyers and sellers gain a clearer outlook on the future and typically feel more confident in making decisions. This renewed confidence often leads to an increase in home sales.
What’s in Store for 2025?
If history is any guide, we can expect more homes to sell next year. According to the latest projections, this is exactly what’s anticipated. As the chart below illustrates, the housing market is on track to sell 4.6 million homes this year, with forecasts predicting 5.2 million sales in the upcoming year (see graph below).
This follows the usual trend of rebounds after elections.
Though the market may seem to be slowing down at the moment, it’s more of a temporary dip than a lasting shift. As in previous years, once the uncertainty surrounding the election clears, buyers and sellers will come back to the market.
Bottom Line
It’s important to keep in mind that although election years often cause a brief slowdown in the housing market, this pause is usually short-lived. Those sales aren’t lost. Data indicates that home sales generally rise in the year following a Presidential election, and current predictions suggest 2025 will follow the same trend. If you’re holding off on making a move for a clearer outlook, rest assured that the market is expected to gain momentum in the coming months.